Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash BLOG
Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash You may have heard chatter recently about the economy and talk about a possible recession. It's no surprise that kind of noise gets some people worried about a housing market crash. Maybe you’re one of them. But here’s the good news – there’s no need to panic. The housing market is not set up for a crash right now. Real estate journalist Michele Lerner says: “A housing market crash happens when home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.” With that definition in mind, here are two reasons why this just isn’t on the horizon. 1. Demand for Homes Is Higher than Supply One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed back in 2008 was an oversupply of homes. Today, though, it’s a very different story. It’s a general rule of thumb that a market where supply and demand are balanced has a six-month supply of homes. A higher number means supply outpaces demand, and a lower number means demand outpaces supply. The graph below uses data from NAR to put today’s situation into context: The graph compares housing supply during three different periods of time. The red bar shows there were 13 months of supply before the 2008 crisis, which was far too much. The gray bar shows a balanced market with six months of supply, for context. And the blue bar shows there are only 4.2 months of supply today. Put simply, there are more people who want to buy homes than there are homes available to buy right now. So, demand is greater than supply. When that happens, home prices stay steady or rise – the opposite of a housing market crash. It’s important to note that inventory levels differ from market to market. Some areas may be more balanced, while a few could have a slight oversupply, which can impact prices locally. However, most markets continue to experience a shortage of homes. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.” 2. Unemployment Is Still Low When people are unemployed, they’re more likely to have trouble making their mortgage payments and may be forced to sell or face foreclosure. That was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the employment situation is much more stable (see graph below): Again, this graph shows three different periods of time, but this one is the unemployment rate. The red bar represents the 2008 financial crisis when unemployment was very high at 8.3%. The gray bar shows the 75-year average of 5.7%. And the blue bar shows the unemployment rate today, and it’s much lower at just 4.1%. Right now, people are working, earning an income, and making their mortgage payments. That’s one reason why the wave of foreclosures that happened in 2008 isn’t going to happen again this time. Plus, since so many people are employed right now, many are actually in a position to buy a home, and this demand keeps upward pressure on prices. Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger than in 2008 While it’s understandable to be concerned when you hear talk of a recession and economic uncertainty, but know this: the housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008. According to Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company: “Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis.” Demand for homes still outpaces supply, and unemployment remains low. And these are two key factors that will help prevent the housing market from crashing any time soon. Bottom Line The housing market is doing a lot better than it was in 2008, but it’s important to remember that real estate is very local. So, it’s always a good idea to stay informed about our specific market. If you have any questions or want to discuss how these factors are playing out in our area, feel free to reach out.
Why Now’s Not the Time To Take Your House Off the Market
Why Now’s Not the Time To Take Your House Off the Market Has your house been sitting on the market longer than expected? If so, you’re bound to be frustrated by now. Maybe you’re even thinking it’s time to pull the listing and wait to see what 2025 brings. But what you may not realize is, the decision to hold off could actually cost you. Here’s a look at why staying the course could be the smarter move. Other Sellers Are Pulling Back. Should You Hold Off Too? According to recent data from Altos Research, the number of withdrawals is increasing – that means more sellers are opting to pull their listings off the market right now. And this isn’t unusual for this time of the year. In the housing market, there are seasonal ebbs and flows. Inventory levels typically start to drop off a bit headed into the fall season as some sellers delay their plans until the new year. As Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, explains: “. . . we’re seeing a more normal seasonal pattern now with inventory beginning to decline. We’re also seeing more home sellers withdrawing their listings to try again next year. In fact, for every two sales, there is another listing withdrawn from the market.” But is that a smart move? While it might seem like a good idea to pull your listing too, here’s why that approach may not pay off this year. Today’s Buyers Are Serious and Ready To Act The biggest reason to stick with your plan to sell now is that the buyers who are looking at this time of year are serious about making a purchase. They’ve been sitting on the sidelines for a while waiting for affordability to improve. And now that mortgage rates are down from their recent peak, they’re ready to make their move. Mortgage applications are rising – and that’s a leading indicator that buyers are preparing to jump back in. And since they’ve already put their needs on the back burner for so long, they’re even more eager than buyers usually are at this time of year. These aren’t window shoppers. They’re highly motivated buyers who want to move fast – and that’s the kind of buyer you want to work with. As Freddie Mac says: “During the fall months, serious homebuyers are eager to settle in to a new home before the holiday season ramps up and the winter weather begins.” By keeping your home on the market, you increase the chances of attracting people who are truly ready to make a purchase. Bottom Line While some sellers are choosing to take their homes off the market, this really isn’t the best move. With serious buyers eager to purchase, this is a great time to sell your house. Let’s connect to make sure we’ve got a strategy in place to make it happen.
Is Your House Priced Too High?
Is Your House Priced Too High? Every seller wants to get their house sold quickly, for as much money as they can, with as few headaches as possible. And chances are, you’re no different. But did you know one of the biggest things that could jeopardize your success is the asking price for your home? Pricing your house correctly is one of the most crucial steps in the selling process. So, how do you know if you’re missing the mark? Here are four signs your high asking price might be turning potential buyers away—and why leaning on your real estate agent is the best way to course correct. 1. You’re Not Getting Many Showings or Offers One of the most obvious signs your house may be overpriced is a lack of showings. If it's been on the market for several weeks and only a few buyers have come to see it—or worse, you haven’t gotten any offers—it could be a clear indication the price isn’t matching up with what buyers expect. Because buyers who have been looking for a while can easily spot (and write off) a home that seems overpriced. Your real estate agent will coach you through this, so lean on their experience for what you may want to try to bring more buyers in, including considering a price cut. 2. Buyers Have Consistent Negative Feedback after Showings And if after the showings you do have, comments from the potential buyers aren’t great, you may need to course correct. Feedback from showings is an important part of understanding how buyers see your house. If they consistently say it's overpriced compared to other homes they’ve seen, it’s time to reconsider your pricing strategy. Your agent will gather and analyze this feedback for you, so you can look at how your house stacks up in the market. They can also suggest specific improvements or staging changes to better justify your asking price, or recommend one that aligns with today’s buyer expectations. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains: “Based on all the data gathered, agents may make adjustments to the initial price recommendation. This could involve adjusting for market conditions, property uniqueness, or other factors that may impact the property's value.” 3. It’s Been on the Market for Too Long And that lack of interest is ultimately going to lead to it sitting on the market without any serious bites. The longer it lingers, the more likely it is to raise red flags for buyers, who may wonder if something is wrong with it. Especially in today’s market with growing inventory, a long listing period means your house is stale – and that makes it even harder to sell. Your real estate agent will be able to give you perspective on how quickly other homes in your area are selling and walk you through what’s working for other sellers. That way you can decide together if there’s something you want to do differently. As a Bankrate article says: “Check with your agent about the average number of days homes spend on the market in your area. If your listing has been up significantly longer than average, that may be a sign to reduce the price.” 4. Your Neighbor’s House Sold Without an Issue And here’s the last one to watch out for. If similar homes in your area are selling faster than yours, it’s a clear sign that something is off. This could be due to things like a lack of upgrades, outdated features, or a less desirable location. Or, it may be priced too high. Your agent will keep you up to date on your competition and what changes, if any, you need to make your home more competitive. They’ll offer advice on small updates that could increase your home’s appeal or how to adjust your strategy to reflect the reality of the market today. Bottom Line Pricing a home correctly is both an art and a science. It requires a deep understanding of the market and buyer psychology. And when the price isn’t drawing in buyers, there’s no better resource than your agent on what you may want to do next.
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