Expert Forecasts for the 2025 Housing Market
Expert Forecasts for the 2025 Housing Market Wondering what’s in store for the housing market this year? And more specifically, what it all means for you if you plan to buy or sell a home? The best way to get that information is to lean on the pros. Experts are constantly updating and revising their forecasts, so here’s the latest on two of the biggest factors expected to shape the year ahead: mortgage rates and home prices. Will Mortgage Rates Come Down? Everyone’s keeping an eye on mortgage rates and waiting for them to come down. So, the question is really: how far and how fast? The good news is they’re projected to ease a bit in 2025. But that doesn’t mean you should expect to see a return of 3-4% mortgage rates. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “Are we going to go back to 4%? Per my forecast, unfortunately, we will not. It’s more likely that we’ll go back to 6%.” And the other experts agree. They’re forecasting rates could settle in the mid-to-low 6% range by the end of the year (see chart below): But you should remember, this will continue to change as new information becomes available. Expert forecasts are based on what they know right now. And since everything from inflation to economic drivers have an impact on where rates go from here, some ups and downs are still very likely. So, don’t get caught up in the exact numbers here and try to time the market. Instead, focus on the overall trend and on what you can actually control. A trusted lender and an agent partner will make sure you’ve always got the latest data and the context on what it really means for you and your bottom line. With their help, you’ll see even a small decline can help bring down your future mortgage payment. Will Home Prices Fall? The short answer? Not likely. While mortgage rates are expected to ease, home prices are projected to keep climbing in most areas – just at a slower, more normal pace. If you average the expert forecasts together, you’ll see prices are expected to go up roughly 3% next year, with most of them hitting somewhere in the 3 to 4% range. And that’s a much more typical and sustainable rise in prices (see graph below): So don’t expect a sudden drop that’ll score you a big deal if you’re thinking of buying this year. While that may sound disappointing, if you’re hoping prices will come down, refocus on this. It means you won’t have to deal with the steep increases we saw in recent years, and you’ll also likely see any home you do buy go up in value after you get the keys in hand. And that’s actually a good thing. And if you’re wondering how it’s even possible prices are still rising, here’s your answer. It all comes down to supply and demand. Even though there are more homes for sale now than there were a year ago, it’s still not enough to keep up with all the buyers out there. As Redfin explains: “Prices will rise at a pace similar to that of the second half of 2024 because we don’t expect there to be enough new inventory to meet demand.” Keep in mind, though, the housing market is hyper-local. So, this will vary by area. Some markets will see even higher prices. And some may see prices level off or even dip a little if inventory is up in that area. In most places though, prices will continue to rise (as they usually do). If you want to find out what’s happening where you live, you need to lean on an agent who can explain the latest trends and what they mean for your plans. Bottom Line The housing market is always shifting, and 2025 will be no different. With rates likely to ease a bit and prices rising at a more normal and sustainable pace, it’s all about staying informed and making a plan that works for you. Let’s connect so you can get the scoop on what’s happening in our area and advice on how to make your next move a smart one.
How Home Equity May Help You Buy Your Next Home in Cash
How Home Equity May Help You Buy Your Next Home in Cash Building equity in your house is one of the biggest financial advantages of homeownership. And right now, homeowners across the country are sitting on record amounts of it. Here’s a look at how that equity could be a game changer for you, and why it’ll flip your perspective from “Why would I move right now?” to “Why wouldn’t I?” Home Equity: What Is It? Home equity is the difference between how much your house is worth and how much you still owe on your mortgage. For example, if your house is valued at $400,000 and you only owe $200,000 on your mortgage, your equity would be $200,000. Why Equity Is Such a Big Deal for Homeowners Looking To Sell Recent data from the Census and ATTOM shows how significant today’s home equity really is. In fact, more than two out of three homeowners have either completely paid off their mortgages (shown in green in the chart below) or have at least 50% equity in their homes (shown in blue in the chart below): And that’s a big deal. Think about it: 2 out of 3 homeowners have at least 50% equity in their homes. To put a more tangible number on it so you can think about what that really means for someone like you, CoreLogic shows the average homeowner has $311,000 worth of equity built up. That kind of net worth can go a long way if you’re trying to make a move. And that’s part of the reason why the share of all-cash buyers recently reached a new high. According to an annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 26% of buyers were able to buy without a mortgage (see graph below): Imagine buying your next house in cash. No mortgage. No monthly payment. No interest rate to mess with. If you want to find out how much equity you have to see if that’s an option for you, connect with a real estate agent and ask for a professional equity assessment report (PEAR). Who knows, you may find out you have enough equity to buy your next place outright– and with today’s mortgage rates, not having to take out a home loan is pretty incredible. Even if you don’t have enough equity to buy in all cash, you may still have enough to make a larger down payment, which has its own benefits too. Bottom Line Homeowners have an incredible amount of equity today – and that’s why the share of all-cash buyers is on the rise. To see how much equity you have and talk through how it can help fuel your next move, let’s connect.
What Will It Take for Prices To Come Down?
What Will It Take for Prices To Come Down? You may be wondering if home prices are going to crash. And believe it or not, some people might even be hoping this happens so they can finally purchase a more affordable home. But experts agree that's not what's in the cards – and here's why. There are more people who want to buy a home than there are homes available to purchase. That’s what drives prices up. Let’s break that down and explore why, nationally, home prices aren’t going to be coming down anytime soon. Prices Depend on Supply and Demand The housing market works like any other market – when demand is high and supply is low, prices rise. According to the latest estimates, the U.S. is facing a housing shortfall of several million homes. That means there are far more people looking to buy (demand) than there are homes for sale (supply). That mismatch is the key reason why prices won’t fall at the national level. As David Childers, President of Keeping Current Matters (KCM), puts it: “The main driving force on pricing is the limited amount of inventory in most markets across the country. That issue is not going to be solved overnight or in the next twelve months.” How Did We Get Here? For over 15 years, homebuilders haven’t been building enough homes to keep up with buyer demand. After the 2008 housing crisis, homebuilding slowed significantly, and it’s only recently started to recover (see graph below): Even with new construction on the rise over the past few years, builders are playing catch-up. And according to AmericanProgress.org, they’re still not even keeping up with today’s demand, let alone making up for years of underbuilding. And as long as there’s a housing shortage, home prices will remain steady or increase in most areas. What About Next Year? The majority of experts agree prices will keep rising next year, but at a much slower, healthier pace (see graph below): But it’s important to note home prices vary by market. What happens nationally might not reflect exactly what’s happening in your area. If your local market has more inventory available, prices could grow more slowly or even decline slightly. But in areas where inventory remains tight, prices will keep climbing – and that’s what’s happening throughout most of the country. That’s why it’s crucial to work with a local real estate expert who understands your market and can explain what’s going on where you live. Bottom Line If you’re wondering what it’ll take for prices to come down, it all goes back to supply and demand. With inventory still limited in most markets, prices are likely to remain steady or rise. To see what’s happening with home prices where we live, let’s connect. That way you’ll have help understanding our market and making a plan that works for you.
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