2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect
2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect Looking ahead to 2025, it's important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you're thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans. Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025. Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below): Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says: “With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.” Expect More Homes To Sell The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year. According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below): That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year. While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them. Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below): On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market. Bottom Line Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you're buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.
Are We Heading into a Balanced Market?
Are We Heading into a Balanced Market? If you’ve been keeping an eye on the housing market over the past couple of years, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know. What Is a Balanced Market? A balanced market is generally defined as a market with about a five-to-seven-month supply of homes available for sale. In this type of market, neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Prices tend to stabilize, and there’s a healthier number of homes to choose from. And after many years when sellers had all the leverage, a more balanced market would be a welcome sight for people looking to move. The question is – is that really where the market is headed? After starting the year with a three-month supply of homes nationally, inventory has increased to four months. That may not sound like a lot, but it means the market is getting closer to balanced – even though it’s not quite there yet. It’s important to note this increase in inventory is not leading to an oversupply that would cause a crash. Even with the growth lately, there’s still nowhere near enough supply for that to happen. The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to give you an idea of where inventory has been in the past, and where it’s at today: For now, this is still seller’s market territory – it’s just not as frenzied of a seller’s market as it’s been over the past few years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says: “The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.” What This Means for You and Your Move Here's how this shift impacts you and the market conditions you'll face when you move. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains: “Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.” The graphs below use the latest data from NAR and Realtor.com to help show examples of these changes: Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer: Since more homes are on the market, they’re not selling quite as fast. For buyers, this means you may have more time to find the right home. For sellers, it’s important to price your house right if you want it to sell. If you don’t, buyers might choose better-priced options. Sellers Are Receiving Fewer Offers: As a seller, you might need to be more flexible and willing to compromise on price or terms to close the deal. For buyers, you could start to face less intense competition since you have more options to choose from. Fewer Buyers Are Waiving Inspections: As a buyer, you have more negotiation power now. And that’s why fewer buyers are waiving inspections. For sellers, this means you need to be ready to negotiate and address repair requests to keep the sale moving forward. How a Real Estate Agent Can Help But this is just the national picture. The type of market you’re in is going to vary a lot based on how much inventory is available. So, lean on a local real estate agent for insight into how your area stacks up. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how the market is changing gives you a big advantage. Your agent has the latest data and local insights, so you know exactly what’s happening and how to navigate it. Bottom Line The real estate market is always changing, and it’s important to stay informed. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding this shift toward a balanced market can help. If you have any questions or need expert advice, don’t hesitate to reach out.
Are Home Prices Going To Come Down?
Are Home Prices Going To Come Down? Today’s headlines and news stories about home prices are confusing and make it tough to know what’s really happening. Some say home prices are heading for a correction, but what do the facts say? Well, it helps to start by looking at what a correction means. Here’s what Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says: “In stock market terms, a correction is generally referred to as a 10 to 20% drop in prices . . . We don't have the same established definitions in the housing market.” In the context of today’s housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall dramatically. It only means prices, which have been increasing rapidly over the last couple years, are normalizing a bit. In other words, they’re now growing at a slower pace. Prices vary a lot by local market, but rest assured, a big drop off isn’t what’s happening at a national level. The Real Estate Market Is Normalizing From 2020 to 2022, home prices skyrocketed. That rapid increase was due to high demand, low interest rates, and a shortage of homes for sale. But, that kind of aggressive growth couldn’t continue forever. Today, price growth has started to slow down, which is a sign the market is beginning to normalize. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as quickly as before (see graph below): The big takeaway? So far this year, there’s been a much healthier pace of price growth compared to the pandemic. Of course, that’s what’s happening now, but you may be wondering what’s next for prices. Marco Santarelli, the Founder of Norada Real Estate Investments, says: “Expert forecasts lean towards a moderation in home price growth over the next five years. This translates to a slower and more sustainable pace of appreciation compared to the breakneck speed witnessed in recent years, rather than a freefall in prices.” It’s all about supply and demand. Increasing inventory plus limited buyer demand, due to relatively high mortgage rates, will continue to ease some of the upward pressure on prices. What This Means for You If you’re thinking about buying a home, slowing price growth is welcome news. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic left many would-be homebuyers feeling priced out. While it’s still a good thing to know the value of the home you buy will likely continue to go up once you own it, slowing price gains are making things feel more manageable. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says: “While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help — so the dream of homeownership isn't boarded up just yet.” Bottom Line At the national level, home prices are not going down. And most experts forecast they’ll continue growing moderately moving forward. But prices vary a lot by local market. That’s where a trusted real estate agent comes into play. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our area, please reach out to us.
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